Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 65¢ · $425 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$424.56
$13.23
65.8¢ → 65¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 63.7¢ | $332.95 | $209.44 | +$28.59 | 54% 4740-4090 (8830) |
CO Contestable-Parfait | Noavg 63.5¢ | $94.95 | $100.11 | +$5.16 | — 3-5 (8) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 76.7¢ | $85.9 | $59.01 | -$12.52 | 42% 4998-6886 (11884) |
 crypto-basenjiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $60 | $56 | -$8 | 39% 148-232 (380) |
Invested
$332.95
Value
$209.44
PnL
+$28.59
Record
54%
4740-4090 (8830)
Invested
$94.95
Value
$100.11
PnL
+$5.16
Record
—
3-5 (8)
Invested
$85.9
Value
$59.01
PnL
-$12.52
Record
42%
4998-6886 (11884)
crypto-basenjiCTR<$100Invested
$60
Value
$56
PnL
-$8
Record
39%
148-232 (380)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.