Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$20.22

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 92¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,203

Combined PnL+$2.59

Yes3 traders

Total Value$439.86

Total Shares5,788

Combined PnL-$22.8

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

63h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 91.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$2.64	57% 41558-31300 (72858)
wish-	Noavg 92.4¢	$540.36	$541	+$0.05	79% 1261-327 (1588)
LO Logan.CTR	Yesavg 8.8¢	$437.75	$379.92	-$44.07	41% 662-948 (1610)
DI Dimpled-Foal	Noavg 92.5¢	$157.3	$157.25	-$0.22	53% 268-242 (510)
PaddyAlpha	Noavg 91.8¢	$110.27	$110.52	+$0.25	59% 1054-736 (1790)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$71.47	$72.15	-$0.14	49% 22892-23745 (46637)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$23.58	$36.25	+$12.68	50% 363-356 (719)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$15.1	$23.69	+$8.59	41% 3647-5210 (8857)

Haradwaith

Invested

$1,154.56

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$2.64

Record

57%

41558-31300 (72858)

wish-

Invested

$540.36

Value

$541

PnL

+$0.05

Record

79%

1261-327 (1588)

Logan.CTR

Yes

Invested

$437.75

Value

$379.92

PnL

-$44.07

Record

41%

662-948 (1610)

Dimpled-Foal

Invested

$157.3

Value

$157.25

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

268-242 (510)

PaddyAlpha

Invested

$110.27

Value

$110.52

PnL

+$0.25

Record

59%

1054-736 (1790)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$71.47

Value

$72.15

PnL

-$0.14

Record

49%

22892-23745 (46637)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.58

Value

$36.25

PnL

+$12.68

Record

50%

363-356 (719)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.1

Value

$23.69

PnL

+$8.59

Record

41%

3647-5210 (8857)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

63h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.