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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $166 held · ends Feb 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$166.36
-$0.93
99.9¢ → 99.3¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $100.92 | $100.31 | -$0.6 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $43.82 | $43.58 | -$0.24 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $15.63 | $15.55 | -$0.08 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $6.78 | $6.74 | -$0.03 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.14 | $0.17 | +$0.02 | 84% 66-13 (79) |
Invested
$100.92
Value
$100.31
PnL
-$0.6
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$43.82
Value
$43.58
PnL
-$0.24
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$15.63
Value
$15.55
PnL
-$0.08
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$6.78
Value
$6.74
PnL
-$0.03
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.17
PnL
+$0.02
Record
84%
66-13 (79)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.