Will Belgium win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$27.88

Smart Money Entry

98.8¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,051

Combined PnL-$9.73

Yes4 traders

Total Value$48.86

Total Shares468

Combined PnL+$37.61

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
thefakenick	Noavg 98.8¢	$498.95	$492.38	-$6.57	— 7-4 (11)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 98.6¢	$370.26	$370.53	+$0.27	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$99.6	$99.3	-$0.3	48% 1294-1427 (2721)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$39.4	$38.04	-$1.36	52% 969-886 (1855)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$7.83	$30.09	+$22.26	40% 280-415 (695)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$29.66	$27.88	-$1.78	38% 334-535 (869)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$25.23	$9.34	+$9.23	27% 109-299 (408)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$2.9	$8.71	+$5.81	24% 29-93 (122)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$0.4	$0.71	+$0.31	53% 2390-2132 (4522)

thefakenick

Invested

$498.95

Value

$492.38

PnL

-$6.57

Record

—

7-4 (11)

cigarettes

Invested

$370.26

Value

$370.53

PnL

+$0.27

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$99.6

Value

$99.3

PnL

-$0.3

Record

48%

1294-1427 (2721)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$39.4

Value

$38.04

PnL

-$1.36

Record

52%

969-886 (1855)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.83

Value

$30.09

PnL

+$22.26

Record

40%

280-415 (695)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.66

Value

$27.88

PnL

-$1.78

Record

38%

334-535 (869)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.23

Value

$9.34

PnL

+$9.23

Record

27%

109-299 (408)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$8.71

PnL

+$5.81

Record

24%

29-93 (122)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.71

PnL

+$0.31

Record

53%

2390-2132 (4522)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.