Will BC.Game Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $157 held · ends Dec 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$156.54
-$5.93
99.8¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $99.8 | $99.8 | +$0 | 50% 66309-66843 (133152) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $25.26 | $25.26 | +$0 | 30% 35529-84054 (119583) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $24.4 | $24.27 | -$0.13 | 46% 6652-7812 (14464) |
DG DG-NOCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.01 | $7.22 | -$5.79 | 38% 842-1356 (2198) |
Invested
$99.8
Value
$99.8
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
66309-66843 (133152)
balthazar<$100Invested
$25.26
Value
$25.26
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
35529-84054 (119583)
Invested
$24.4
Value
$24.27
PnL
-$0.13
Record
46%
6652-7812 (14464)
Invested
$13.01
Value
$7.22
PnL
-$5.79
Record
38%
842-1356 (2198)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.