Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 song this week?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 94¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
$1.1K
$241.04
Research grade
NeutralYes at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shovelingdigging | Yesavg 71.5¢ | $849.84 | $1.1K | +$263.99 | 62% 367-226 (593) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $10.71 | $3.14 | -$9.13 | 17% 1065-5312 (6377) |
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $10.8 | $2.46 | -$8.32 | 62% 5596-3462 (9058) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $6.51 | $1.91 | -$5.5 | 36% 1989-3558 (5547) |
Invested
$849.84
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$263.99
Record
62%
367-226 (593)
Invested
$10.71
Value
$3.14
PnL
-$9.13
Record
17%
1065-5312 (6377)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$2.46
PnL
-$8.32
Record
62%
5596-3462 (9058)
Invested
$6.51
Value
$1.91
PnL
-$5.5
Record
36%
1989-3558 (5547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.