Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Jun 15, 2027

Yes88¢No12¢Ends Tue, Jun 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 87.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,812

Combined PnL+$1.2K

No6 traders

Total Value$64.19

Total Shares513

Combined PnL-$4.57

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

770h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
StarMaster	Yesavg 87¢	$870.01	$875.01	+$5	53% 1927-1703 (3630)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 87.3¢	$649.35	$564.47	+$129.89	45% 2956-3648 (6604)
WA WarriorH	Yesavg 85.3¢	$537.58	$83.52	+$1.1K	17% 1307-6523 (7830)
PU purplegatto<$100	Yesavg 86.6¢	$39.82	$40.02	+$0.2	49% 6287-6447 (12734)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$20.93	$20.13	-$0.8	58% 15784-11478 (27262)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$20.8	$20	-$0.8	46% 9372-11125 (20497)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 87.6¢	$87.9	$13.75	-$1.34	58% 21138-15369 (36507)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 14.2¢	$14.2	$12.5	-$1.7	58% 16798-12127 (28925)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 13.5¢	$5.55	$5.14	-$0.41	43% 10588-14062 (24650)
probability<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$4.15	$4.35	+$0.23	40% 1564-2378 (3942)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$4.07	$3.92	-$0.16	50% 922-906 (1828)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$3.2	$2.5	-$0.7	53% 23469-20698 (44167)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$870.01

Value

$875.01

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

1927-1703 (3630)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$649.35

Value

$564.47

PnL

+$129.89

Record

45%

2956-3648 (6604)

WarriorH

Yes

Invested

$537.58

Value

$83.52

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

17%

1307-6523 (7830)

purplegatto<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.82

Value

$40.02

PnL

+$0.2

Record

49%

6287-6447 (12734)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$20.93

Value

$20.13

PnL

-$0.8

Record

58%

15784-11478 (27262)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$20.8

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.8

Record

46%

9372-11125 (20497)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.9

Value

$13.75

PnL

-$1.34

Record

58%

21138-15369 (36507)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$14.2

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$1.7

Record

58%

16798-12127 (28925)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$5.55

Value

$5.14

PnL

-$0.41

Record

43%

10588-14062 (24650)

probability<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$0.23

Record

40%

1564-2378 (3942)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Invested

$4.07

Value

$3.92

PnL

-$0.16

Record

50%

922-906 (1828)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.7

Record

53%

23469-20698 (44167)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

770h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.