Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Jun 15, 2027

Yes88¢No12¢Ends Tue, Jun 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$140.58

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 87.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,380

Combined PnL+$143.75

No2 traders

Total Value$59.5

Total Shares476

Combined PnL-$3.17

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

762h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
StarMaster	Yesavg 86.5¢	$875.01	$880.01	+$5	53% 1912-1693 (3605)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 87.3¢	$649.35	$570.96	+$136.38	45% 2849-3477 (6326)
Istaroth	Yesavg 84¢	$404	$402	-$2	14% 503-3033 (3536)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 84.6¢	$397.08	$266.04	+$4.86	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
PU purplegatto<$100	Yesavg 86.6¢	$39.82	$40.48	+$0.43	49% 6256-6415 (12671)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 13.3¢	$41.87	$39.5	-$2.37	44% 6563-8231 (14794)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$20.8	$20	-$0.8	49% 8939-9446 (18385)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 87.6¢	$87.9	$13.9	-$1.18	58% 20160-14785 (34945)
probability<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$4.15	$4.4	+$0.25	42% 1530-2142 (3672)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$875.01

Value

$880.01

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

1912-1693 (3605)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$649.35

Value

$570.96

PnL

+$136.38

Record

45%

2849-3477 (6326)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$404

Value

$402

PnL

-$2

Record

14%

503-3033 (3536)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$397.08

Value

$266.04

PnL

+$4.86

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

purplegatto<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.82

Value

$40.48

PnL

+$0.43

Record

49%

6256-6415 (12671)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$41.87

Value

$39.5

PnL

-$2.37

Record

44%

6563-8231 (14794)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$20.8

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.8

Record

49%

8939-9446 (18385)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.9

Value

$13.9

PnL

-$1.18

Record

58%

20160-14785 (34945)

probability<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.25

Record

42%

1530-2142 (3672)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

762h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.