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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 88¢ · $180 held · ends Jun 19, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$179.91
$0.04
88¢ → 87.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $82.53 | $82.06 | -$0.47 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $66 | $65.63 | -$0.38 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $22.43 | $23.36 | +$0.93 | 47% 1611-1838 (3449) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $7.16 | $7.12 | -$0.04 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $1.75 | $1.74 | -$0.01 | 26% 1234-3522 (4756) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$82.53
Value
$82.06
PnL
-$0.47
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
Invested
$66
Value
$65.63
PnL
-$0.38
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$22.43
Value
$23.36
PnL
+$0.93
Record
47%
1611-1838 (3449)
Invested
$7.16
Value
$7.12
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.74
PnL
-$0.01
Record
26%
1234-3522 (4756)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.