Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Bayer Leverkusen finish first in UEL league phase?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 1.7¢ · $128 held · ends Feb 28, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$127.99
-$247.42
12¢ → 1.7¢
-86% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $60.03 | $68.19 | +$8.16 | 53% 23878-20983 (44861) |
 thefakenickCTR | Yesavg 12.3¢ | $294.63 | $39.6 | -$255.03 | 50% 925-910 (1835) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yes | $6.75 | $6.75 | +$0.22 | 28% 584-1499 (2083) |
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $0.87 | $6.16 | -$0.33 | 61% 864-548 (1412) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yes | $4.59 | $4.59 | -$0.25 | 58% 16867-12184 (29051) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.02 | $2.7 | -$0.18 | 17% 397-1995 (2392) |
Invested
$60.03
Value
$68.19
PnL
+$8.16
Record
53%
23878-20983 (44861)
thefakenickCTRInvested
$294.63
Value
$39.6
PnL
-$255.03
Record
50%
925-910 (1835)
Invested
$6.75
Value
$6.75
PnL
+$0.22
Record
28%
584-1499 (2083)
Invested
$0.87
Value
$6.16
PnL
-$0.33
Record
61%
864-548 (1412)
Invested
$4.59
Value
$4.59
PnL
-$0.25
Record
58%
16867-12184 (29051)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$2.7
PnL
-$0.18
Record
17%
397-1995 (2392)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.