Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 80¢ · $3K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$3.0K
-$11.38
61.2¢ → 79.5¢
+30% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
1271h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MaxEnt | Noavg 61.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.7K | +$373.38 | 31% 134-292 (426) |
 elmcap2CTR | Yesavg 43.8¢ | $1.1K | $507.74 | -$575.86 | 89% 1666-205 (1871) |
 PMTraderAdam | Noavg 61¢ | $244 | $318 | +$74 | 77% 830-249 (1079) |
 -Yang- | Noavg 59¢ | $235.99 | $317.99 | +$82 | 82% 275-61 (336) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Yesavg 8¢ | $284.08 | $58.24 | +$35.51 | 20% 2358-9226 (11584) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.8¢ | $57.09 | $42.89 | -$14.2 | 59% 992-696 (1688) |
 Anjun<$100 | Noavg 44.3¢ | $94.24 | $31.19 | +$13.8 | 55% 4989-4056 (9045) |
Invested
$1,317.68
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$373.38
Record
31%
134-292 (426)
elmcap2CTRInvested
$1,083.6
Value
$507.74
PnL
-$575.86
Record
89%
1666-205 (1871)
PMTraderAdamInvested
$244
Value
$318
PnL
+$74
Record
77%
830-249 (1079)
-Yang-Invested
$235.99
Value
$317.99
PnL
+$82
Record
82%
275-61 (336)
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$284.08
Value
$58.24
PnL
+$35.51
Record
20%
2358-9226 (11584)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$57.09
Value
$42.89
PnL
-$14.2
Record
59%
992-696 (1688)
Anjun<$100Invested
$94.24
Value
$31.19
PnL
+$13.8
Record
55%
4989-4056 (9045)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.