Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.4K
$26.45
95.4¢ → 98.4¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 94.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$23.69 | 66% 1105-564 (1669) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 98¢ | $227.42 | $228.26 | +$1.07 | 76% 11178-3438 (14616) |
AV aviato<$100 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $11.61 | $12.35 | +$0.74 | 84% 2423-446 (2869) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $8.09 | $8.13 | +$0.04 | 57% 13602-10422 (24024) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $4.03 | $5.29 | +$0.92 | 47% 2034-2252 (4286) |
DEGENKHANInvested
$1,132.54
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$23.69
Record
66%
1105-564 (1669)
Invested
$227.42
Value
$228.26
PnL
+$1.07
Record
76%
11178-3438 (14616)
Invested
$11.61
Value
$12.35
PnL
+$0.74
Record
84%
2423-446 (2869)
Invested
$8.09
Value
$8.13
PnL
+$0.04
Record
57%
13602-10422 (24024)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$4.03
Value
$5.29
PnL
+$0.92
Record
47%
2034-2252 (4286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.