Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bam Adebayo win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.22

Combined PnL

-$37.56

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$1.22

Total Shares2,445

Combined PnL-$37.56

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$11.17	$0.39	-$10.78	79% 10607-2754 (13361)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$9.33	$0.28	-$9.05	60% 7177-4741 (11918)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$7.29	$0.22	-$7.07	61% 13849-8708 (22557)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$3.55	$0.11	-$3.44	25% 181-537 (718)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$2.02	$0.06	-$1.96	30% 2187-5031 (7218)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.91	$0.06	-$1.86	25% 228-684 (912)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.39	$0.04	-$1.35	30% 320-759 (1079)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.93	$0.03	-$0.91	23% 177-599 (776)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.9	$0.03	-$0.88	28% 212-555 (767)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.15	$0	-$0.14	55% 6024-5008 (11032)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.14	$0	-$0.13	35% 104-196 (300)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.17

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$10.78

Record

79%

10607-2754 (13361)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.33

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$9.05

Record

60%

7177-4741 (11918)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.29

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$7.07

Record

61%

13849-8708 (22557)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.55

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$3.44

Record

25%

181-537 (718)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.02

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.96

Record

30%

2187-5031 (7218)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.86

Record

25%

228-684 (912)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.39

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.35

Record

30%

320-759 (1079)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.91

Record

23%

177-599 (776)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.88

Record

28%

212-555 (767)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

PnL

-$0.14

Record

55%

6024-5008 (11032)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

PnL

-$0.13

Record

35%

104-196 (300)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.