Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 97¢ · $3K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 29%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$763.51

Smart Money Entry

82.1¢ → 97.4¢

+19% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,520

Combined PnL+$373.8

Yes5 traders

Total Value$390.35

Total Shares12,773

Combined PnL$-1.1K

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4856h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Noavg 82¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$373.75	52% 5893-5489 (11382)
ND ndb1CTR	Yesavg 13¢	$901.11	$211.42	-$689.7	66% 910-479 (1389)
AN ancianoCTR	Yesavg 11.7¢	$2.0K	$163.06	-$440.35	52% 1161-1068 (2229)
ME MenacingTurtle<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$20	$19.39	+$0.05	56% 252-195 (447)
RA rainbowliliesCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$261.46	$11.55	+$0.09	40% 2669-3960 (6629)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$9.52	$2.24	-$7.34	41% 1402-2011 (3413)
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100	Yes	$2.09	$2.09	+$0	43% 468-621 (1089)

Nooserac

Invested

$2,049.99

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$373.75

Record

52%

5893-5489 (11382)

ndb1CTR

Yes

Invested

$901.11

Value

$211.42

PnL

-$689.7

Record

66%

910-479 (1389)

ancianoCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,978.15

Value

$163.06

PnL

-$440.35

Record

52%

1161-1068 (2229)

MenacingTurtle<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$19.39

PnL

+$0.05

Record

56%

252-195 (447)

rainbowliliesCTR

Yes

Invested

$261.46

Value

$11.55

PnL

+$0.09

Record

40%

2669-3960 (6629)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.52

Value

$2.24

PnL

-$7.34

Record

41%

1402-2011 (3413)

0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$2.09

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

468-621 (1089)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4856h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.