Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2026 AFC North?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 13¢ · $578 held · ends Jan 18, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$577.87
-$282.79
33.2¢ → 13¢
-61% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+40 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Late
729h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Yesavg 44¢ | $231.64 | $244.8 | -$113.19 | 53% 4278-3736 (8014) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 19.1¢ | $206.98 | $146.38 | -$60.6 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR | Yesavg 45.4¢ | $35.14 | $138.66 | -$41.21 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 55¢ | $3.24 | $41.39 | -$60.62 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.2¢ | $13.81 | $6.63 | -$7.18 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
Invested
$231.64
Value
$244.8
PnL
-$113.19
Record
53%
4278-3736 (8014)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$206.98
Value
$146.38
PnL
-$60.6
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$35.14
Value
$138.66
PnL
-$41.21
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$3.24
Value
$41.39
PnL
-$60.62
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$13.81
Value
$6.63
PnL
-$7.18
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.