Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 99¢ · $322 held · ends Dec 1

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$322.47

Combined PnL

$134.33

Smart Money Entry

96.6¢ → 99¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$321.19

Total Shares323

Combined PnL+$137.07

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.68

Total Shares137

Combined PnL-$2.74

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.1¢	$118.92	$119.4	-$0.24	53% 23789-20956 (44745)
12 123987456	Noavg 99¢	$141.63	$97.51	+$0.45	42% 2367-3241 (5608)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$59.49	$29.85	+$0.1	43% 8792-11430 (20222)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$29.86	$29.7	-$0.16	58% 15832-11509 (27341)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$25.02	$24.88	-$0.15	26% 7355-21119 (28474)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 18¢	$39.63	$9.95	+$137.01	58% 16851-12164 (29015)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$57.25	$9.9	+$0.06	53% 12559-10942 (23501)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$1.14	$0.32	-$0.81	27% 610-1662 (2272)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$1.9	$0.28	-$1.62	23% 1807-6053 (7860)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.38	$0.08	-$0.3	27% 2544-6903 (9447)

cigarettes

Invested

$118.92

Value

$119.4

PnL

-$0.24

Record

53%

23789-20956 (44745)

123987456

Invested

$141.63

Value

$97.51

PnL

+$0.45

Record

42%

2367-3241 (5608)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$59.49

Value

$29.85

PnL

+$0.1

Record

43%

8792-11430 (20222)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.86

Value

$29.7

PnL

-$0.16

Record

58%

15832-11509 (27341)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$25.02

Value

$24.88

PnL

-$0.15

Record

26%

7355-21119 (28474)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$39.63

Value

$9.95

PnL

+$137.01

Record

58%

16851-12164 (29015)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$57.25

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

12559-10942 (23501)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$0.81

Record

27%

610-1662 (2272)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$1.62

Record

23%

1807-6053 (7860)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.3

Record

27%

2544-6903 (9447)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.