Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will AZ finish first in UEL league phase?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $292 held · ends Feb 28, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Feb 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$292.23

Combined PnL

-$54.62

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$220.74

Total Shares2,374

Combined PnL-$54.74

No1 trader

Total Value$71.5

Total Shares79

Combined PnL+$0.12

Yes — 90%No — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yes	$155.68	$155.68	-$39.02	32% 3311-7182 (10493)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$78.68	$71.5	+$0.12	53% 24131-21178 (45309)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$8.53	$33.09	-$8.29	50% 925-911 (1836)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.14	$8.56	-$2.14	23% 1823-6135 (7958)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.03	$6.6	-$1.65	27% 2563-6991 (9554)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$4.65	-$1.17	17% 1377-6690 (8067)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yes	$4.65	$4.65	-$0.58	28% 589-1508 (2097)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.87	$4.24	-$1.06	61% 864-548 (1412)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$1.86	-$0.47	17% 404-2027 (2431)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$1.4	-$0.35	49% 6601-6966 (13567)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$155.68

Value

$155.68

PnL

-$39.02

Record

32%

3311-7182 (10493)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$78.68

Value

$71.5

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

24131-21178 (45309)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.53

Value

$33.09

PnL

-$8.29

Record

50%

925-911 (1836)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$8.56

PnL

-$2.14

Record

23%

1823-6135 (7958)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$6.6

PnL

-$1.65

Record

27%

2563-6991 (9554)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$1.17

Record

17%

1377-6690 (8067)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$0.58

Record

28%

589-1508 (2097)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$4.24

PnL

-$1.06

Record

61%

864-548 (1412)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$0.47

Record

17%

404-2027 (2431)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.35

Record

49%

6601-6966 (13567)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.