Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ayoze Pérez (Villarreal) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Jun 15, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Jun 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.79

Combined PnL

-$39.47

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.79

Total Shares2,789

Combined PnL-$39.47

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$13.81	$0.91	-$12.9	60% 7177-4741 (11918)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$12.5	$0.82	-$11.67	30% 2187-5031 (7218)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$5.08	$0.34	-$4.74	24% 666-2082 (2748)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$4.08	$0.27	-$3.81	79% 10607-2754 (13361)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$2.5	$0.17	-$2.33	50% 7809-7848 (15657)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$2.27	$0.15	-$2.12	25% 181-537 (718)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.35	$0.09	-$1.26	51% 218-210 (428)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.67	$0.04	-$0.63	31% 1407-3191 (4598)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.81

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$12.9

Record

60%

7177-4741 (11918)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.5

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$11.67

Record

30%

2187-5031 (7218)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.08

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$4.74

Record

24%

666-2082 (2748)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.08

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$3.81

Record

79%

10607-2754 (13361)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$2.33

Record

50%

7809-7848 (15657)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$2.12

Record

25%

181-537 (718)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$1.26

Record

51%

218-210 (428)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.63

Record

31%

1407-3191 (4598)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8562.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

8662.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.