Will Avigdor Lieberman receive the second mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $165 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$164.77
-$1.58
99.9¢ → 99¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
68h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $63.39 | $62.78 | -$0.6 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $57.94 | $57.39 | -$0.55 | 31% 2735-6214 (8949) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.46 | $20.26 | -$0.19 | 43% 386-510 (896) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $11.21 | $11.1 | -$0.11 | 41% 700-997 (1697) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.29 | $7.22 | -$0.07 | 40% 1457-2158 (3615) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.06 | $6.01 | -$0.06 | 49% 353-368 (721) |
Invested
$63.39
Value
$62.78
PnL
-$0.6
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$57.94
Value
$57.39
PnL
-$0.55
Record
31%
2735-6214 (8949)
Invested
$20.46
Value
$20.26
PnL
-$0.19
Record
43%
386-510 (896)
Invested
$11.21
Value
$11.1
PnL
-$0.11
Record
41%
700-997 (1697)
Invested
$7.29
Value
$7.22
PnL
-$0.07
Record
40%
1457-2158 (3615)
Invested
$6.06
Value
$6.01
PnL
-$0.06
Record
49%
353-368 (721)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
mildwindow27
No — $62.78
qwen300.fund
No — $57.39
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $20.26
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $11.1
haveagoodday
No — $7.22
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $6.01