Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Avigdor Lieberman receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $390 held · ended Oct 28

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$389.98

Combined PnL

-$217.72

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$389.98

Total Shares77,995

Combined PnL-$217.72

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

108h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR	Yes	$118.2	$118.2	-$23.64	44% 2320-2943 (5263)
CA cashyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$20.92	$88.04	+$138.24	71% 621-257 (878)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yes	$54.51	$54.51	-$103.49	67% 27587-13890 (41477)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yes	$44.84	$44.84	-$85.19	68% 13273-6262 (19535)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.95	$34.65	-$58.15	53% 12604-11065 (23669)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$102.3	$32.96	-$62.04	71% 13984-5672 (19656)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.01	$6.74	-$12.79	38% 7338-11775 (19113)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.1	$6.67	-$10.37	28% 2897-7470 (10367)
0X 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$1.01	$1.68	+$0.67	63% 24-14 (38)
HolyMoses7CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$1.4	$1.26	-$0.14	50% 1759-1780 (3539)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yes	$0.2	$0.2	-$0.38	39% 320-506 (826)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yes	$0.19	$0.19	-$0.36	42% 923-1279 (2202)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	-$0.08	25% 486-1480 (1966)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$0	17% 4509-22111 (26620)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR

Yes

Invested

$118.2

Value

$118.2

PnL

-$23.64

Record

44%

2320-2943 (5263)

cashyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.92

Value

$88.04

PnL

+$138.24

Record

71%

621-257 (878)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.51

Value

$54.51

PnL

-$103.49

Record

67%

27587-13890 (41477)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.84

Value

$44.84

PnL

-$85.19

Record

68%

13273-6262 (19535)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.95

Value

$34.65

PnL

-$58.15

Record

53%

12604-11065 (23669)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$102.3

Value

$32.96

PnL

-$62.04

Record

71%

13984-5672 (19656)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$6.74

PnL

-$12.79

Record

38%

7338-11775 (19113)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$6.67

PnL

-$10.37

Record

28%

2897-7470 (10367)

0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$0.67

Record

63%

24-14 (38)

HolyMoses7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$0.14

Record

50%

1759-1780 (3539)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.38

Record

39%

320-506 (826)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.36

Record

42%

923-1279 (2202)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.08

Record

25%

486-1480 (1966)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0

Record

17%

4509-22111 (26620)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

108h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6351.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

6451.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.