Will "Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 260m?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $226 held · ends Dec 20
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$226.47
-$0.23
99.8¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME merod | Noavg 99.8¢ | $168.66 | $168.49 | -$0.17 | 85% 22-4 (26) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $32.18 | $32.14 | -$0.03 | 36% 462-806 (1268) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $22.07 | $22.04 | -$0.02 | 5% 18-315 (333) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $3.79 | $3.79 | -$0 | 34% 150-294 (444) |
Invested
$168.66
Value
$168.49
PnL
-$0.17
Record
85%
22-4 (26)
Invested
$32.18
Value
$32.14
PnL
-$0.03
Record
36%
462-806 (1268)
Invested
$22.07
Value
$22.04
PnL
-$0.02
Record
5%
18-315 (333)
Invested
$3.79
Value
$3.79
PnL
-$0
Record
34%
150-294 (444)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.