Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 400m?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 33¢ · $556 held · ends Dec 20
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$555.94
-$27.2
33.7¢ → 33¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
79h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NostdamCTR | Yesavg 34¢ | $450.4 | $437.61 | -$19.16 | 54% 1486-1255 (2741) |
WA WarriorH | Noavg 65.1¢ | $224.98 | $49.64 | -$14.75 | 17% 1362-6604 (7966) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $23.84 | $23.8 | +$0.7 | 53% 8621-7707 (16328) |
LP lpgb<$100 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $35.88 | $21.13 | -$0.03 | 27% 614-1678 (2292) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $11.79 | $13.59 | +$2.1 | 17% 4506-22075 (26581) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.9¢ | $5.97 | $9.9 | +$3.93 | 42% 2369-3249 (5618) |
NostdamCTRInvested
$450.4
Value
$437.61
PnL
-$19.16
Record
54%
1486-1255 (2741)
Invested
$224.98
Value
$49.64
PnL
-$14.75
Record
17%
1362-6604 (7966)
Invested
$23.84
Value
$23.8
PnL
+$0.7
Record
53%
8621-7707 (16328)
Invested
$35.88
Value
$21.13
PnL
-$0.03
Record
27%
614-1678 (2292)
2B9S<$100Invested
$11.79
Value
$13.59
PnL
+$2.1
Record
17%
4506-22075 (26581)
Invested
$5.97
Value
$9.9
PnL
+$3.93
Record
42%
2369-3249 (5618)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.