Will "Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 300m and 340m?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 89¢ · $417 held · ends Dec 20
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$416.56
-$2.33
90¢ → 89¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME merod | Noavg 90¢ | $152.1 | $151.26 | -$0.84 | 85% 22-4 (26) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 90¢ | $144 | $143.2 | -$0.8 | 28% 2424-6147 (8571) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $57.89 | $57.57 | -$0.32 | 31% 196-433 (629) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $27 | $26.85 | -$0.15 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $19.9 | $19.79 | -$0.11 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $18 | $17.9 | -$0.1 | 52% 5301-4808 (10109) |
Invested
$152.1
Value
$151.26
PnL
-$0.84
Record
85%
22-4 (26)
Invested
$144
Value
$143.2
PnL
-$0.8
Record
28%
2424-6147 (8571)
Invested
$57.89
Value
$57.57
PnL
-$0.32
Record
31%
196-433 (629)
Invested
$27
Value
$26.85
PnL
-$0.15
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Invested
$19.9
Value
$19.79
PnL
-$0.11
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$18
Value
$17.9
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
5301-4808 (10109)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.