Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will "Avengers: Doomsday" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 400m?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 43¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 20

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Sun, Dec 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$80.08

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 42.5¢

-24% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$618.37

Total Shares1,455

Combined PnL-$14.05

Yes2 traders

Total Value$148.92

Total Shares261

Combined PnL+$94.13

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SP SPLPBARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	24% 806-2607 (3413)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$250	$287.5	+$37.5
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$250	$212.5	-$37.5
LP lpgbCTR	Noavg 52.5¢	$697.31	$449.23	-$55.5	27% 659-1763 (2422)
Nostdam	Yesavg 21.1¢	$49.81	$134.67	+$84.86	54% 1497-1266 (2763)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR	Noavg 73¢	$58.77	$69.7	+$64.67	27% 2564-7034 (9598)
WA WarriorHCTR	Noavg 64¢	$179.58	$42.5	-$10.82	16% 1392-7374 (8766)
CI cigarettesCTR	Noavg 75.2¢	$195.6	$25.5	-$9.74	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$8.93	$14.25	+$9.26	41% 2520-3700 (6220)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$13.81	$13.04	-$0.77	16% 408-2125 (2533)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 44.4¢	$9.8	$9.5	-$0.3	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$6.48	$4.52	-$1.97	53% 8890-8041 (16931)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 9.8¢	$1.78	$2.22	+$0.45	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 49.1¢	$5.04	$2.16	-$0.08	36% 1206-2165 (3371)

SPLPBARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

806-2607 (3413)

Both legs:

Yes$25050¢+$37.5

No$25050¢-$37.5

lpgbCTR

Invested

$697.31

Value

$449.23

PnL

-$55.5

Record

27%

659-1763 (2422)

Nostdam

Yes

Invested

$49.81

Value

$134.67

PnL

+$84.86

Record

54%

1497-1266 (2763)

SpringlyFawlCTR

Invested

$58.77

Value

$69.7

PnL

+$64.67

Record

27%

2564-7034 (9598)

WarriorHCTR

Invested

$179.58

Value

$42.5

PnL

-$10.82

Record

16%

1392-7374 (8766)

cigarettesCTR

Invested

$195.6

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$9.74

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.93

Value

$14.25

PnL

+$9.26

Record

41%

2520-3700 (6220)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$13.81

Value

$13.04

PnL

-$0.77

Record

16%

408-2125 (2533)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$6.48

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$1.97

Record

53%

8890-8041 (16931)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$1.78

Value

$2.22

PnL

+$0.45

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$0.08

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.