Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 92%
$1.6K
$1.37
99.7¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 49%
Freshness
Mature
26h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.7¢ | $434.99 | $435.4 | +$0.41 | 29% 2568-6178 (8746) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.6¢ | $335.86 | $336.43 | +$0.57 | 36% 3038-5350 (8388) |
HA haveagoodday | Noavg 99.6¢ | $258.01 | $258.45 | +$0.44 | 40% 1424-2156 (3580) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.8¢ | $202.76 | $202.8 | +$0.05 | 53% 5455-4894 (10349) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.8¢ | $149.7 | $149.7 | -$0 | 50% 4568-4480 (9048) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $49.9 | $49.9 | +$0 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $49.9 | $49.9 | +$0 | 28% 521-1360 (1881) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $49.9 | $49.9 | +$0 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.94 | +$0.03 | 10% 36-325 (361) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $6.34 | $6.34 | +$0 | 78% 252-71 (323) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $148.64 | $5.72 | -$0.12 | 24% 82-265 (347) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.88 | $0.88 | +$0 | 12% 16-115 (131) |
Invested
$434.99
Value
$435.4
PnL
+$0.41
Record
29%
2568-6178 (8746)
LucerysInvested
$335.86
Value
$336.43
PnL
+$0.57
Record
36%
3038-5350 (8388)
Invested
$258.01
Value
$258.45
PnL
+$0.44
Record
40%
1424-2156 (3580)
Invested
$202.76
Value
$202.8
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
5455-4894 (10349)
balthazarInvested
$149.7
Value
$149.7
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
4568-4480 (9048)
Invested
$49.9
Value
$49.9
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$49.9
Value
$49.9
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
521-1360 (1881)
Invested
$49.9
Value
$49.9
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0.03
Record
10%
36-325 (361)
Invested
$6.34
Value
$6.34
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
252-71 (323)
Invested
$148.64
Value
$5.72
PnL
-$0.12
Record
24%
82-265 (347)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.88
Value
$0.88
PnL
+$0
Record
12%
16-115 (131)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.