Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $544 held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$544.43
-$1.91
96.6¢ → 98.9¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 wish- | Noavg 94.9¢ | $295.36 | $306.11 | +$10.75 | 79% 1167-318 (1485) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.6¢ | $218.62 | $212.8 | -$5.82 | 61% 20834-13247 (34081) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $22.77 | $11.08 | -$11.69 | 57% 3056-2310 (5366) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 81.3¢ | $7.26 | $8.03 | +$0.77 | 59% 979-676 (1655) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $2.33 | $6.41 | +$4.08 | 18% 519-2318 (2837) |
wish-Invested
$295.36
Value
$306.11
PnL
+$10.75
Record
79%
1167-318 (1485)
balthazarInvested
$218.62
Value
$212.8
PnL
-$5.82
Record
61%
20834-13247 (34081)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$22.77
Value
$11.08
PnL
-$11.69
Record
57%
3056-2310 (5366)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$7.26
Value
$8.03
PnL
+$0.77
Record
59%
979-676 (1655)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.33
Value
$6.41
PnL
+$4.08
Record
18%
519-2318 (2837)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.