Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Austin Reaves win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.68

Combined PnL

-$52.24

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$1.68

Total Shares3,361

Combined PnL-$52.24

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$16.89	$0.51	-$16.39	61% 13846-8705 (22551)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$14.66	$0.45	-$14.21	60% 7177-4733 (11910)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$11.17	$0.39	-$10.78	92% 8583-746 (9329)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$3.55	$0.11	-$3.44	25% 180-537 (717)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$2.02	$0.06	-$1.96	30% 2186-5024 (7210)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.91	$0.06	-$1.86	26% 228-645 (873)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.39	$0.04	-$1.35	30% 320-759 (1079)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.93	$0.03	-$0.91	23% 176-599 (775)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.9	$0.03	-$0.88	28% 212-552 (764)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.21	$0.01	-$0.21	59% 218-153 (371)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.15	$0	-$0.14	55% 6022-5005 (11027)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.14	$0	-$0.13	34% 103-196 (299)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.89

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$16.39

Record

61%

13846-8705 (22551)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.66

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$14.21

Record

60%

7177-4733 (11910)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.17

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$10.78

Record

92%

8583-746 (9329)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.55

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$3.44

Record

25%

180-537 (717)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.02

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.96

Record

30%

2186-5024 (7210)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.86

Record

26%

228-645 (873)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.39

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.35

Record

30%

320-759 (1079)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.91

Record

23%

176-599 (775)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.88

Record

28%

212-552 (764)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.21

Record

59%

218-153 (371)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

PnL

-$0.14

Record

55%

6022-5005 (11027)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

PnL

-$0.13

Record

34%

103-196 (299)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.