Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will August be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $56 held · ends Jan 9, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 9, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$56.29

Combined PnL

-$351.51

Smart Money Entry

24.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$56.29

Total Shares1,544

Combined PnL-$351.51

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

146h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yes	$31.3	$31.3	-$94.58	50% 21528-21357 (42885)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 42.3¢	$76.42	$20.42	-$55.99	55% 42139-34063 (76202)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.5¢	$8.97	$3.44	-$5.71	15% 4992-29310 (34302)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.55	$0.45	-$1.25	45% 32023-39165 (71188)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.8¢	$0.78	$0.21	-$0.57	22% 3396-11845 (15241)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$91.9	$0.18	-$91.71	47% 47421-53861 (101282)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.6¢	$84.78	$0.17	-$84.62	40% 3998-6084 (10082)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$2.44	$0.08	-$2.37	23% 8560-28980 (37540)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$10	$0.02	-$9.98	23% 2592-8848 (11440)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$4.75	$0.01	-$4.74	21% 384-1436 (1820)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.3

Value

$31.3

PnL

-$94.58

Record

50%

21528-21357 (42885)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.42

Value

$20.42

PnL

-$55.99

Record

55%

42139-34063 (76202)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.97

Value

$3.44

PnL

-$5.71

Record

15%

4992-29310 (34302)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$1.25

Record

45%

32023-39165 (71188)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.57

Record

22%

3396-11845 (15241)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.9

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$91.71

Record

47%

47421-53861 (101282)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.78

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$84.62

Record

40%

3998-6084 (10082)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.44

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$2.37

Record

23%

8560-28980 (37540)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$9.98

Record

23%

2592-8848 (11440)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.75

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.74

Record

21%

384-1436 (1820)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

146h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.