Will Atlético Mineiro win the 2026 Copa do Brasil?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 89¢ · $58 held · ends Dec 6

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Sun, Dec 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$57.7

Combined PnL

$3.5

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$53.1

Total Shares60

Combined PnL+$9.3

Yes1 trader

Total Value$4.6

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$5.8

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 73¢	$29.2	$35.4	+$6.2	41% 6811-9665 (16476)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 73¢	$7.3	$8.85	+$1.55	51% 3565-3449 (7014)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 73¢	$7.3	$8.85	+$1.55	49% 8663-9182 (17845)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$10.4	$4.6	-$5.8	27% 6785-18664 (25449)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.2

Value

$35.4

PnL

+$6.2

Record

41%

6811-9665 (16476)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$8.85

PnL

+$1.55

Record

51%

3565-3449 (7014)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$8.85

PnL

+$1.55

Record

49%

8663-9182 (17845)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.4

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$5.8

Record

27%

6785-18664 (25449)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.