Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Atalanta win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $31 held · ends May 30, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$31.36
-$153.55
1.2¢ → 0.4¢
-70% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
729h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $161.94 | $27.28 | -$134.66 | 41% 2125-3050 (5175) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $15.28 | $1.94 | -$13.22 | 40% 1567-2380 (3947) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $3.26 | $1.86 | -$1.4 | 49% 6290-6450 (12740) |
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $4.35 | $0.24 | -$3.71 | 17% 104-504 (608) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.03 | $0.03 | -$0.57 | — 4-0 (4) |
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$161.94
Value
$27.28
PnL
-$134.66
Record
41%
2125-3050 (5175)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$15.28
Value
$1.94
PnL
-$13.22
Record
40%
1567-2380 (3947)
Invested
$3.26
Value
$1.86
PnL
-$1.4
Record
49%
6290-6450 (12740)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$3.71
Record
17%
104-504 (608)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.57
Record
—
4-0 (4)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.