Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 82¢ · $288 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$288.39
-$5.39
74.5¢ → 82¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MaxVision | Noavg 74.3¢ | $189.43 | $209.1 | -$8.38 | 36% 40-71 (111) |
 crypto-basenji<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $41 | $41 | -$0 | 38% 166-273 (439) |
KI KiruaTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.6¢ | $33.18 | $32.17 | -$1.01 | 56% 248-194 (442) |
88 881112<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $2.13 | $6.12 | +$3.99 | 37% 553-925 (1478) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.