Will Astralis Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$1.2K
$0.45
99.7¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Late
75h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $368.89 | $369.08 | +$0.19 | 50% 4477-4426 (8903) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.7¢ | $267.52 | $267.53 | +$0.01 | 52% 5277-4791 (10068) |
QU quietparcel | Noavg 99.7¢ | $149.55 | $149.63 | +$0.07 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $147.43 | $147.5 | +$0.07 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $89.73 | $89.78 | +$0.05 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $49.85 | $49.88 | +$0.02 | 44% 1068-1376 (2444) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $49.85 | $49.88 | +$0.02 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.93 | +$0.02 | — 0-13 (13) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $5.78 | $5.79 | +$0 | 35% 2852-5315 (8167) |
balthazarInvested
$368.89
Value
$369.08
PnL
+$0.19
Record
50%
4477-4426 (8903)
Invested
$267.52
Value
$267.53
PnL
+$0.01
Record
52%
5277-4791 (10068)
Invested
$149.55
Value
$149.63
PnL
+$0.07
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$147.43
Value
$147.5
PnL
+$0.07
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$89.73
Value
$89.78
PnL
+$0.05
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$49.85
Value
$49.88
PnL
+$0.02
Record
44%
1068-1376 (2444)
Invested
$49.85
Value
$49.88
PnL
+$0.02
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.93
PnL
+$0.02
Record
—
0-13 (13)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5.78
Value
$5.79
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
2852-5315 (8167)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.