Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Artificial win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $23 held · ends Mar 14, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Mar 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$23.1

Combined PnL

-$99.51

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$23.09

Total Shares5,529

Combined PnL-$99.51

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

178h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$30.25	$16.22	-$65.75	47% 1401-1578 (2979)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$27.98	$4.51	-$23.48	55% 42191-34106 (76297)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$3.18	$0.63	-$2.55	50% 66284-66816 (133100)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$3.26	$0.53	-$2.74	34% 3946-7627 (11573)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$1.39	$0.44	-$0.95	38% 842-1356 (2198)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$2.71	$0.44	-$2.27	23% 52-171 (223)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$1.9	$0.31	-$1.59	31% 2585-5634 (8219)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.22	$0.04	-$0.18	43% 5588-7271 (12859)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.25

Value

$16.22

PnL

-$65.75

Record

47%

1401-1578 (2979)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.98

Value

$4.51

PnL

-$23.48

Record

55%

42191-34106 (76297)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.18

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$2.55

Record

50%

66284-66816 (133100)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.26

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$2.74

Record

34%

3946-7627 (11573)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.39

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$0.95

Record

38%

842-1356 (2198)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.71

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$2.27

Record

23%

52-171 (223)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$1.59

Record

31%

2585-5634 (8219)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.18

Record

43%

5588-7271 (12859)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

178h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6959.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7059.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.