Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Armenia win the UEFA EURO 2028?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.9¢ · $30 held · ends Jul 24, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 100%
$29.8
$17.39
Research grade
AvoidYes at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Late
149h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $6.87 | $13.16 | +$6.28 | 30% 35477-83899 (119376) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yes | $3.19 | $3.19 | +$3.63 | 55% 25563-21209 (46772) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $1.63 | $3.04 | +$1.4 | 45% 16725-20380 (37105) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.08 | $2.59 | +$1.4 | 50% 21595-21452 (43047) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0.02 | $2.2 | +$1.28 | 49% 24111-24663 (48774) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $0.78 | $1.72 | +$0.93 | 55% 42163-34090 (76253) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.31 | $1.69 | +$0.84 | 42% 15342-20806 (36148) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.16 | $1.28 | +$1.12 | 26% 598-1691 (2289) |
PL plainfolderCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.94 | $0.94 | +$0.51 | 50% 19532-19373 (38905) |
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$6.87
Value
$13.16
PnL
+$6.28
Record
30%
35477-83899 (119376)
Invested
$3.19
Value
$3.19
PnL
+$3.63
Record
55%
25563-21209 (46772)
Invested
$1.63
Value
$3.04
PnL
+$1.4
Record
45%
16725-20380 (37105)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$2.59
PnL
+$1.4
Record
50%
21595-21452 (43047)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$1.28
Record
49%
24111-24663 (48774)
Invested
$0.78
Value
$1.72
PnL
+$0.93
Record
55%
42163-34090 (76253)
Invested
$0.31
Value
$1.69
PnL
+$0.84
Record
42%
15342-20806 (36148)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$1.28
PnL
+$1.12
Record
26%
598-1691 (2289)
Invested
$0.94
Value
$0.94
PnL
+$0.51
Record
50%
19532-19373 (38905)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.