Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 7.2¢ · $50 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$49.69

Combined PnL

-$40.07

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$48.31

Total Shares639

Combined PnL-$40.32

No1 trader

Total Value$1.38

Total Shares2

Combined PnL+$0.25

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4671h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

13 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$44.15	$22.03	-$11.51	50% 1637-1628 (3265)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.6¢	$21.73	$13.54	-$8.62	41% 1267-1798 (3065)
4751346CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$32.54	$12.16	-$20.38	72% 1239-480 (1719)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 76¢	$1.13	$1.38	+$0.25	52% 4898-4433 (9331)
0X 0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$0.38	$0.57	+$0.19	11% 3-25 (28)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.15

Value

$22.03

PnL

-$11.51

Record

50%

1637-1628 (3265)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.73

Value

$13.54

PnL

-$8.62

Record

41%

1267-1798 (3065)

4751346CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.54

Value

$12.16

PnL

-$20.38

Record

72%

1239-480 (1719)

korda77<$100

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

4898-4433 (9331)

0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

$0.57

PnL

+$0.19

Record

11%

3-25 (28)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4671h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

13 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.6%

7.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1065.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

1166.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.