Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Arknights: Endfield win Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 33¢ · $87 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$87.17

Combined PnL

$32.53

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$61.33

Total Shares186

Combined PnL+$23.65

No2 traders

Total Value$25.84

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$8.88

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.5¢	$41.85	$33.61	+$6.56	39% 1785-2840 (4625)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	$27.72	$27.72	+$17.09	47% 92-102 (194)
RA rainbowlilies<$100	Noavg 62¢	$25.41	$14.11	+$2.05	40% 2659-3917 (6576)
GA Gaditima<$100	Noavg 28¢	$4.9	$11.73	+$6.83	48% 6234-6890 (13124)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.85

Value

$33.61

PnL

+$6.56

Record

39%

1785-2840 (4625)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.72

Value

$27.72

PnL

+$17.09

Record

47%

92-102 (194)

rainbowlilies<$100

Invested

$25.41

Value

$14.11

PnL

+$2.05

Record

40%

2659-3917 (6576)

Gaditima<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$11.73

PnL

+$6.83

Record

48%

6234-6890 (13124)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.