Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ararat-Armenia finish first in UEL league phase?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $14 held · ends Feb 28, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Feb 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$13.61

Combined PnL

-$72.94

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$13.61

Total Shares3,155

Combined PnL-$72.94

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$9.95	-$2.33	16% 1406-7535 (8941)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$1.34	$1.34	-$0.31	20% 560-2178 (2738)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$39.86	$0.84	-$39.02	27% 3479-9254 (12733)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.8	-$0.19	47% 47397-53674 (101071)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$16.17	$0.34	-$15.83	55% 25544-21102 (46646)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$8.47	$0.18	-$8.29	51% 980-953 (1933)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$2.19	$0.05	-$2.14	22% 1863-6612 (8475)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$1.69	$0.04	-$1.65	23% 2589-8836 (11425)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.61	$0.03	-$0.58	26% 592-1671 (2263)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$1.09	$0.02	-$1.06	64% 1196-686 (1882)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$1.07	$0.02	-$1.05	45% 7289-8747 (16036)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.48	$0.01	-$0.47	16% 415-2207 (2622)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$9.95

PnL

-$2.33

Record

16%

1406-7535 (8941)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.34

Value

$1.34

PnL

-$0.31

Record

20%

560-2178 (2738)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.86

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$39.02

Record

27%

3479-9254 (12733)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.19

Record

47%

47397-53674 (101071)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.17

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$15.83

Record

55%

25544-21102 (46646)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.47

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$8.29

Record

51%

980-953 (1933)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.19

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.14

Record

22%

1863-6612 (8475)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.69

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.65

Record

23%

2589-8836 (11425)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.58

Record

26%

592-1671 (2263)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.06

Record

64%

1196-686 (1882)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.07

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.05

Record

45%

7289-8747 (16036)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.47

Record

16%

415-2207 (2622)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.