Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $418 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$417.91
$0.29
99.5¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $124.38 | $124.5 | +$0.13 | 19% 65-276 (341) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $89.55 | $89.64 | +$0.09 | 50% 4571-4481 (9052) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $64.35 | $64.41 | +$0.06 | 29% 2584-6181 (8765) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $59.74 | $59.76 | +$0.02 | 9% 38-370 (408) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $49.8 | $49.8 | +$0 | 81% 35-8 (43) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $18.36 | $18.35 | -$0.02 | 53% 5469-4897 (10366) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $11.44 | $11.45 | +$0.01 | 36% 3058-5353 (8411) |
Invested
$124.38
Value
$124.5
PnL
+$0.13
Record
19%
65-276 (341)
balthazar<$100Invested
$89.55
Value
$89.64
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
4571-4481 (9052)
Invested
$64.35
Value
$64.41
PnL
+$0.06
Record
29%
2584-6181 (8765)
Invested
$59.74
Value
$59.76
PnL
+$0.02
Record
9%
38-370 (408)
Invested
$49.8
Value
$49.8
PnL
+$0
Record
81%
35-8 (43)
Invested
$18.36
Value
$18.35
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
5469-4897 (10366)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$11.44
Value
$11.45
PnL
+$0.01
Record
36%
3058-5353 (8411)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.