Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 54¢ · $884 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
1 arb excluded
$883.52
$76.1
47.7¢ → 54¢
+13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
434h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 54.9¢ | $210.2 | $203.22 | -$4.24 | 21% 292-1070 (1362) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 47¢ | $95.54 | $108.72 | +$13.21 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54.9¢ | $111.51 | $94.5 | -$17.45 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 47.5¢ | $167.46 | $188.79 | +$21.33 | 53% 6451-5652 (12103) |
 GenaTheBondKilIer | Noavg 47.9¢ | $166.13 | $177.03 | -$9.93 | 51% 517-504 (1021) |
HA HauchnCTR | Yesavg 38.5¢ | $109.21 | $170.41 | +$61.2 | 35% 58-106 (164) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.3¢ | $80.51 | $86.38 | +$5.88 | 32% 4389-9438 (13827) |
LI lissartterCTR | Yesavg 51.3¢ | $101.12 | $57.69 | -$2.37 | 42% 5206-7139 (12345) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$210.2
Value
$203.22
PnL
-$4.24
Record
21%
292-1070 (1362)
Both legs:
Invested
$167.46
Value
$188.79
PnL
+$21.33
Record
53%
6451-5652 (12103)
GenaTheBondKilIerInvested
$166.13
Value
$177.03
PnL
-$9.93
Record
51%
517-504 (1021)
Invested
$109.21
Value
$170.41
PnL
+$61.2
Record
35%
58-106 (164)
Invested
$80.51
Value
$86.38
PnL
+$5.88
Record
32%
4389-9438 (13827)
Invested
$101.12
Value
$57.69
PnL
-$2.37
Record
42%
5206-7139 (12345)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.