Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 57¢ · $785 held · ends Dec 1

Yes43¢No57¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$785.18

Combined PnL

-$48.02

Smart Money Entry

66.6¢ → 57¢

-14% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$450.76

Total Shares717

Combined PnL-$32.09

Yes1 trader

Total Value$53.35

Total Shares139

Combined PnL-$15.94

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
cryingbabydicer87ARB<$100	Yesavg 39.6¢	$270.14	$281.06	+$13.73	48% 9456-10351 (19807)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.6¢	$192.96	$197.46	+$4.5
└ No leg	Noavg 54.9¢	$77.19	$83.6	+$9.23
SP SpringlyFawl<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$98.84	$95.48	-$3.36	30% 2226-5258 (7484)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 63.8¢	$46.81	$88.09	-$3.29	40% 845-1277 (2122)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 72¢	$66.24	$57.04	-$9.2	43% 2822-3734 (6556)
HA HauchnCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$69.29	$53.35	-$15.94	37% 64-110 (174)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 66.9¢	$55.1	$51.06	-$4.03	42% 5364-7391 (12755)
VE VerilyWinningly<$100	Noavg 71¢	$54.67	$47.36	-$7.32	17% 231-1090 (1321)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 72¢	$48.96	$42.16	-$6.8	25% 292-899 (1191)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 65.4¢	$32.37	$30.79	-$1.58	17% 260-1312 (1572)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 71¢	$20.2	$20	-$0.2	16% 417-2186 (2603)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 49¢	$9.8	$12.4	+$2.6	54% 21790-18840 (40630)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 56.6¢	$65.35	$3.31	+$0.97	53% 7625-6755 (14380)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 59¢	$5	$3.08	+$0.13	52% 456-427 (883)

cryingbabydicer87ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$270.14

Value

$281.06

PnL

+$13.73

Record

48%

9456-10351 (19807)

Both legs:

Yes$192.9639.6¢+$4.5

No$77.1954.9¢+$9.23

SpringlyFawl<$100

Invested

$98.84

Value

$95.48

PnL

-$3.36

Record

30%

2226-5258 (7484)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$46.81

Value

$88.09

PnL

-$3.29

Record

40%

845-1277 (2122)

merod<$100

Invested

$66.24

Value

$57.04

PnL

-$9.2

Record

43%

2822-3734 (6556)

HauchnCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.29

Value

$53.35

PnL

-$15.94

Record

37%

64-110 (174)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$55.1

Value

$51.06

PnL

-$4.03

Record

42%

5364-7391 (12755)

VerilyWinningly<$100

Invested

$54.67

Value

$47.36

PnL

-$7.32

Record

17%

231-1090 (1321)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$48.96

Value

$42.16

PnL

-$6.8

Record

25%

292-899 (1191)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$32.37

Value

$30.79

PnL

-$1.58

Record

17%

260-1312 (1572)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.2

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.2

Record

16%

417-2186 (2603)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$2.6

Record

54%

21790-18840 (40630)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$65.35

Value

$3.31

PnL

+$0.97

Record

53%

7625-6755 (14380)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

456-427 (883)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.0%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$69.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

169.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.