Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Apolonija Simon win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$1.15
-$57.57
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hannah-MontanaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $30.36 | $0.65 | -$29.7 | 68% 203-97 (300) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $4.15 | $0.07 | -$4.08 | 31% 280-619 (899) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $4.04 | $0.07 | -$3.97 | 30% 251-576 (827) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $4.04 | $0.07 | -$3.97 | 32% 303-656 (959) |
ZE zerone777CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $4.04 | $0.07 | -$3.97 | 41% 379-555 (934) |
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $4.04 | $0.07 | -$3.97 | 28% 159-410 (569) |
LI LikaseentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $4.04 | $0.07 | -$3.97 | 29% 184-455 (639) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $4.04 | $0.07 | -$3.97 | 32% 306-649 (955) |
Hannah-MontanaCTR<$100Invested
$30.36
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$29.7
Record
68%
203-97 (300)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$4.08
Record
31%
280-619 (899)
Invested
$4.04
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$3.97
Record
30%
251-576 (827)
Invested
$4.04
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$3.97
Record
32%
303-656 (959)
Invested
$4.04
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$3.97
Record
41%
379-555 (934)
Invested
$4.04
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$3.97
Record
28%
159-410 (569)
Invested
$4.04
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$3.97
Record
29%
184-455 (639)
Invested
$4.04
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$3.97
Record
32%
306-649 (955)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.