Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will any other outcome occur in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 46¢ · $206 held · ended Nov 3

Yes46¢No54¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$205.52

Combined PnL

$189.41

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$205.52

Total Shares452

Combined PnL+$189.41

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.83	$71.44	+$69.61	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.89	$45.5	+$44.61	24% 304-947 (1251)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yes	$45.01	$45.01	+$37.95	73% 12613-4596 (17209)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yes	$27.3	$27.3	+$23.01	46% 10082-11777 (21859)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yes	$10.22	$10.22	+$8.62	60% 11493-7614 (19107)
IN influenz.ethCTR<$100	Yes	$3.32	$3.32	+$3.32	42% 10297-14320 (24617)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.4¢	$0.44	$2.73	+$2.29	27% 6723-18550 (25273)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.83

Value

$71.44

PnL

+$69.61

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$45.5

PnL

+$44.61

Record

24%

304-947 (1251)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.01

Value

$45.01

PnL

+$37.95

Record

73%

12613-4596 (17209)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.3

Value

$27.3

PnL

+$23.01

Record

46%

10082-11777 (21859)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.22

Value

$10.22

PnL

+$8.62

Record

60%

11493-7614 (19107)

influenz.ethCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.32

Value

$3.32

PnL

+$3.32

Record

42%

10297-14320 (24617)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$2.29

Record

27%

6723-18550 (25273)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.5%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$110.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

210.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.