Will any Moroccan city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 81¢ · $819 held
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$818.6
-$80.73
86.5¢ → 80.8¢
-7% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
64h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 87.6¢ | $444.49 | $394.2 | -$50.29 | 53% 23469-20698 (44167) |
GO god83743894 | Noavg 84¢ | $172.2 | $159.29 | -$12.91 | 43% 10588-14062 (24650) |
WA WarriorH | Noavg 87¢ | $111.36 | $101.2 | -$10.16 | 17% 1307-6523 (7830) |
 PaddyAlphaARB<$100 | Noavg 87.6¢ | $245.93 | $83.63 | +$17 | 59% 1021-711 (1732) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 87.6¢ | $52.59 | $46.62 | -$5.39 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 14.5¢ | $27 | $37.01 | +$22.4 | |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $32.4 | $31.08 | -$1.32 | 58% 15784-11478 (27262) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $35.2 | $31.08 | -$4.12 | 46% 9372-11125 (20497) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87.1¢ | $21.6 | $18.12 | -$1.92 | 58% 21138-15369 (36507) |
Invested
$444.49
Value
$394.2
PnL
-$50.29
Record
53%
23469-20698 (44167)
Invested
$172.2
Value
$159.29
PnL
-$12.91
Record
43%
10588-14062 (24650)
Invested
$111.36
Value
$101.2
PnL
-$10.16
Record
17%
1307-6523 (7830)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100Invested
$245.93
Value
$83.63
PnL
+$17
Record
59%
1021-711 (1732)
Both legs:
Invested
$32.4
Value
$31.08
PnL
-$1.32
Record
58%
15784-11478 (27262)
Invested
$35.2
Value
$31.08
PnL
-$4.12
Record
46%
9372-11125 (20497)
Invested
$21.6
Value
$18.12
PnL
-$1.92
Record
58%
21138-15369 (36507)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.