Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by December 31?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 93¢ · $733 held · ends Dec 31
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Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$732.68
$36.82
86.7¢ → 93¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Porx | Noavg 89.7¢ | $568.2 | $558.53 | +$15.91 | 66% 1482-770 (2252) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 76¢ | $124.64 | $152.47 | +$27.06 | 89% 4684-550 (5234) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $17.75 | $19.96 | -$1.11 | 47% 2041-2301 (4342) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $6.46 | $1.71 | -$5.04 | 58% 706-507 (1213) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.