Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.6K
-$281.88
97.2¢ → 99.3¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
580h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
20 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KU kukubaja | Noavg 99.5¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$29.08 | 84% 503-93 (596) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR | Yesavg 64.3¢ | $455.6 | $265.62 | -$335.33 | 50% 390-393 (783) |
TY Tysha | Noavg 76¢ | $98.94 | $127.84 | +$29.68 | 73% 7850-2932 (10782) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 74.5¢ | $223.5 | $98.69 | +$48.5 | 42% 5177-7105 (12282) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.3¢ | $53.77 | $0.28 | +$4.36 | 53% 6233-5470 (11703) |
Invested
$2,240.19
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$29.08
Record
84%
503-93 (596)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTRInvested
$455.6
Value
$265.62
PnL
-$335.33
Record
50%
390-393 (783)
Invested
$98.94
Value
$127.84
PnL
+$29.68
Record
73%
7850-2932 (10782)
Invested
$223.5
Value
$98.69
PnL
+$48.5
Record
42%
5177-7105 (12282)
Invested
$53.77
Value
$0.28
PnL
+$4.36
Record
53%
6233-5470 (11703)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.