Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $383 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$383.47
-$9.3
98.3¢ → 98.3¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Late
174h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $150.15 | $151.38 | +$1.23 | 45% 13-16 (29) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $83.4 | $82.81 | -$0.59 | 82% 23-5 (28) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $39.81 | $39.86 | +$0.05 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $33.1 | $32.47 | -$0.63 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $41.58 | $29.29 | -$12.29 | 34% 528-1021 (1549) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $22.85 | $22.42 | -$0.44 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $19.88 | $19.5 | -$0.38 | 27% 499-1349 (1848) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $1.99 | $5.76 | +$3.77 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
Invested
$150.15
Value
$151.38
PnL
+$1.23
Record
45%
13-16 (29)
Invested
$83.4
Value
$82.81
PnL
-$0.59
Record
82%
23-5 (28)
Invested
$39.81
Value
$39.86
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$33.1
Value
$32.47
PnL
-$0.63
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$41.58
Value
$29.29
PnL
-$12.29
Record
34%
528-1021 (1549)
Invested
$22.85
Value
$22.42
PnL
-$0.44
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$19.88
Value
$19.5
PnL
-$0.38
Record
27%
499-1349 (1848)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$1.99
Value
$5.76
PnL
+$3.77
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.