Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.36

Combined PnL

-$214.29

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$2.36

Total Shares4,727

Combined PnL-$214.29

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

94h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
occasionalAwarenessCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$8.43	$1.52	-$6.89	53% 312-276 (588)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.17	$0.17	-$82.47	43% 8783-11422 (20205)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$3.64	$0.16	-$46.69	38% 7175-11791 (18966)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$5.75	$0.13	-$5.62	53% 12547-10907 (23454)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yes	$0.13	$0.13	-$37.58	34% 3339-6354 (9693)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.82	$0.1	-$0.71	17% 4503-22046 (26549)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.3	$0.05	-$0.25	45% 4446-5422 (9868)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$14.88	$0.05	-$14.83	32% 3283-7136 (10419)
broskyeCTR<$100	Yes	$0.03	$0.03	-$9.11	45% 166-206 (372)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.3¢	$43.93	$0.02	-$10.13	49% 6582-6938 (13520)

occasionalAwarenessCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.43

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$6.89

Record

53%

312-276 (588)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$82.47

Record

43%

8783-11422 (20205)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.64

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$46.69

Record

38%

7175-11791 (18966)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.75

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$5.62

Record

53%

12547-10907 (23454)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$37.58

Record

34%

3339-6354 (9693)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.71

Record

17%

4503-22046 (26549)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.25

Record

45%

4446-5422 (9868)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.88

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$14.83

Record

32%

3283-7136 (10419)

broskyeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$9.11

Record

45%

166-206 (372)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.93

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$10.13

Record

49%

6582-6938 (13520)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

94h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.