Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be less than $1.25T?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 3.2¢ · $32 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$32.06
$10.78
Research grade
AvoidYes at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
510h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PH PhongLeXBTCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $15.39 | $15.9 | +$34.69 | 49% 274-288 (562) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $15.11 | $9.05 | -$13.78 | 18% 3832-17363 (21195) |
QM QMG-CORECTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $5.25 | $5.12 | -$0.13 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $10.97 | $1.89 | -$9.08 | 42% 2256-3071 (5327) |
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.1 | $0.1 | -$0.93 | 53% 3725-3239 (6964) |
Invested
$15.39
Value
$15.9
PnL
+$34.69
Record
49%
274-288 (562)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$15.11
Value
$9.05
PnL
-$13.78
Record
18%
3832-17363 (21195)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$5.12
PnL
-$0.13
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Invested
$10.97
Value
$1.89
PnL
-$9.08
Record
42%
2256-3071 (5327)
Invested
$0.1
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$0.93
Record
53%
3725-3239 (6964)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.