Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 93¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$1.5K
$37.97
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 73¢ | $1.8K | $1.4K | +$98.96 | 36% 14340-25707 (40047) |
 Optimus-CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $50 | $18.51 | -$36.12 | 61% 1192-754 (1946) |
ME melonmanmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $9.56 | $13.02 | +$3.46 | 65% 482-259 (741) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54.4¢ | $32.45 | $4.11 | -$28.33 | 55% 42-34 (76) |
Invested
$1,766.32
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$98.96
Record
36%
14340-25707 (40047)
Optimus-CTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$18.51
PnL
-$36.12
Record
61%
1192-754 (1946)
Invested
$9.56
Value
$13.02
PnL
+$3.46
Record
65%
482-259 (741)
EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR<$100Invested
$32.45
Value
$4.11
PnL
-$28.33
Record
55%
42-34 (76)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.