Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be $2.50T or more?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 1.0¢ · $65 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$64.79
-$39.1
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
345h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 98.7¢ | $123.98 | $46.2 | -$38.28 | 53% 24342-21404 (45746) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $1.23 | $9.08 | +$2.42 | 73% 3108-1129 (4237) |
QM QMG-CORECTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $4.24 | $7.42 | -$0.61 | 77% 1492-445 (1937) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yes | $66.04 | $1.08 | +$2.47 | 37% 3313-5704 (9017) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $1.2 | $0.56 | -$2.86 | 27% 659-1763 (2422) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.44 | $0.44 | -$2.23 | 27% 2564-7001 (9565) |
Invested
$123.98
Value
$46.2
PnL
-$38.28
Record
53%
24342-21404 (45746)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$1.23
Value
$9.08
PnL
+$2.42
Record
73%
3108-1129 (4237)
Invested
$4.24
Value
$7.42
PnL
-$0.61
Record
77%
1492-445 (1937)
Invested
$66.04
Value
$1.08
PnL
+$2.47
Record
37%
3313-5704 (9017)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$0.56
PnL
-$2.86
Record
27%
659-1763 (2422)
Invested
$0.44
Value
$0.44
PnL
-$2.23
Record
27%
2564-7001 (9565)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.