Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2027 (ET)?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.56

Combined PnL

-$30.95

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$2.56

Total Shares570

Combined PnL-$30.95

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$8.68	$0.66	-$8.02	18% 855-3975 (4830)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$7.57	$0.58	-$6.99	30% 250-580 (830)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$6.51	$0.5	-$6.01	43% 5158-6923 (12081)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$4.71	$0.36	-$4.35	53% 7310-6373 (13683)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$1.76	$0.13	-$1.63	36% 286-506 (792)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$1.44	$0.11	-$1.33	28% 3256-8289 (11545)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$1.07	$0.08	-$0.99	30% 1151-2701 (3852)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$0.75	$0.06	-$0.69	6% 9-148 (157)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$0.67	$0.05	-$0.62	25% 1338-4032 (5370)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$0.36	$0.03	-$0.33	24% 752-2351 (3103)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.68

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$8.02

Record

18%

855-3975 (4830)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.57

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$6.99

Record

30%

250-580 (830)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.51

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$6.01

Record

43%

5158-6923 (12081)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.71

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$4.35

Record

53%

7310-6373 (13683)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$1.63

Record

36%

286-506 (792)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.44

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$1.33

Record

28%

3256-8289 (11545)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.07

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.99

Record

30%

1151-2701 (3852)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.69

Record

9-148 (157)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.62

Record

25%

1338-4032 (5370)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.33

Record

24%

752-2351 (3103)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.